Automation Potential

McKinsey analysed detailed work activities for almost 800 different occupations in the US market, ranging from CEOs to fast food workers, to estimate the percentage of time that could be automated by adapting currently demonstrated IT technology. They found 2,000 individual work activities, and assessed them against 18 different capabilities that could potentially be automated. In their analysis, they found that 45% of work activities can already by automated based on proven existing technology.

The direction outlined by the research is less about automating individual jobs wholesale, than it is about automating the activities within occupations, and redefining roles and processes. Four key findings have been presented in the study:

1. The automation of Activities – 45 per cent of work activities could be automated using already demonstrated technology. If the technologies that process and “understand” natural language were to reach the median level of human performance, an additional 13 per cent of work activities could be automated. In many cases, automation technology can already match, or even exceed, the median level of human performance required.

2. The redefinition of jobs and business processes - fewer than 5 per cent of occupations can be entirely automated using current technology. However, about 60 per cent of occupations could have 30 per cent or more of their constituent activities automated. In other words, automation is likely to change the vast majority of occupations at least to some degree, which will necessitate significant job redefinition and transformation of business processes.

3. The impact on high-wage occupations - automation potential doesn’t correlate with low-skill, low-wage jobs. Doctors (23%), nurses (29%), and even CEOs (25%) all have significant amounts of their jobs that can be automated. Almost half (47%) of what pharmacists do, can be done by a robo-pharmacist, and 72% of commercial pilot activities can be done through computers.

4. The future of creativity and meaning - capabilities such as creativity and sensing emotions are core to the human experience and also difficult to automate. The amount of time that workers spend on activities requiring these capabilities, though, appears to be surprisingly low: just 4 per cent of the work activities across the US economy require creativity at a median human level of performance.